Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa5a…058c crypto 885 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate86%759W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$59
14 days+$52
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$24
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +1.6% -8.1% 97% 7% -7.7%
≤30d 545 +1.4% -8.3% 96% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 885 -1.6% -10.9% 86% 12% -9.4%
all 885 -1.6% -10.9% 86% 12% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 12% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 8% -18.1%
15% -27.2% 8% -26.0%
20% -34.4% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses759 / 126
Open positions0
Markets (closed)885 / 885
History coverage49d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 885 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$2 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $57 +$3 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $11 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $17 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $11 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $19 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $24 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $13 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.77 · official $0.00 · 2104 history records