Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa5a…72eb politics 130 markets active 2d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$3
politics 31% −$2
sports 11% −$27
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 118 -1.7% -11.1% 5% 3% -9.7%
all 129 -3.2% -12.4% 7% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 5% -10.1%
10% -20.8% 5% -18.7%
15% -28.4% 5% -26.5%
20% -35.4% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×10.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 120
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage110d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $68 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $146 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $30 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $30 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $31 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $34 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $113 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $77 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 17 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $4 5d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $4 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 10d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 10d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 10d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 17d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 17d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $29 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $29 22d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $34 24d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $34 25d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 25d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 26d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 26d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 27d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 27d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 30d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 31d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 32d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $32 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 318 history records