Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa57…a128 crypto 514 markets active 6d ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (257 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$115,561 (-82%) realized −$115,561 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate69%356W / 158L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day256.9pace
Fees−$1,031est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$3,889
crypto 23% −$153
politics 3% −$56
other 1% −$216
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (257 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -13.8% -22.0% 52% 44% -34.9%
≤30d 514 +3.8% -6.0% 69% 60% -12.3%
≤90d 514 +3.8% -6.0% 69% 60% -12.3%
all 514 +3.8% -6.0% 69% 60% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover256.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 60% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 44% -20.7%
15% -23.2% 29% -28.3%
20% -30.8% 17% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$189 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$115,561
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses356 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,031
Open positions0
Markets (closed)514 / 514
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$274
Trades / day256.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 514 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$6 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$7 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$7 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$19 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $72 +$16 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $297 −$270 -91%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $74 −$74 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $68 −$68 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $119 −$119 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$4 +133%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$24 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$4 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$5 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $155 −$136 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $120 +$38 +32%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $51 +$30 +59%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $126 +$59 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $14 +$4 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$10 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $93 +$19 +20%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $45 +$3 +8%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $25 +$19 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $103 +$23 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $204 −$5 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $93 +$70 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $45 −$42 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $34 −$28 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 94¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 89¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $15 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $19 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $18 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 77¢ $11 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 78¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $15 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 76¢ $15 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 61¢ $25 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records