Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AA 0xaa57…4f9d sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$492 (+10%) realized +$495 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +99% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +66% what you keep after slip
Net edge+66%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,733now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$827
other 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+80.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +98.9% +80.0% 68% 68% +13.2%
≤30d 19 +98.9% +80.0% 68% 68% +13.2%
≤90d 19 +98.9% +80.0% 68% 68% +13.2%
all 19 +98.9% +80.0% 68% 68% +13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +80.0% 68% +13.2%
10% +62.7% 63% +2.4%
15% +47.0% 58% -7.5%
20% +32.6% 47% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +99% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late +142% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$66 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.17 per $1 lost it wins $3.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,733
Realized+$495
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $1,735 $1,733 −$3 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $97 +$53 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,283 +$420 +33%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,010 +$158 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $70 +$51 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$41 +139%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$28 +1115%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $39 −$39 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $97 +$40 +41%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $76 +$113 +149%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $127 −$125 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $128 −$127 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $130 −$2 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $49 +$189 +388%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $74 +$98 +134%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $49 +$26 +53%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $34 +$15 +45%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$20 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1,739 41m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $151 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $97 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,702 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,283 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,169 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $121 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1,010 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $70 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $30 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 6h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 10h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 59¢ $39 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $138 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $97 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $189 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $76 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $3 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $127 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $128 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 91¢ $128 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $130 39h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $49 47h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $172 47h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $74 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $74 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $49 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 97¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,732.69 · official $1,728.99 (match) · 34 history records