Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:49:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa57…8f53
crypto · 1164 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,717 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,699 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,699
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses636 / 709
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1345 / 1164
History coverage28d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day101.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1345 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,847
7 days−$4,424
14 days−$4,287
30 days−$4,699
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 1AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 6AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10PM ET Jun 13 $65 −$65 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 6AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 6, 6PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3AM ET Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 9AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -104%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 11AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1AM ET Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 4PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 6AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5PM ET Jun 13 $245 −$245 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 2AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 12AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 9AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 5PM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6AM ET Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 7AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 6PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 3AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 3PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 10AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 7PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 436 -48.9% -53.7% 28% 28% -72.3%
≤30d 1345 -17.8% -25.6% 47% 47% -30.9%
≤90d 1345 -17.8% -25.6% 47% 47% -30.9%
all 1345 -17.8% -25.6% 47% 47% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover101.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 47% -30.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 44% -37.5%
15% -39.2% 36% -43.6%
20% -45.2% 29% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.37 (match) · 3500 history records