Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa56…9cd6 crypto 514 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$156 (+0%) realized +$156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%181W / 333L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$74
14 days−$182
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,281
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 73 -26.1% -33.1% 33% 32% -12.3%
≤90d 514 -5.9% -14.9% 35% 35% -13.1%
all 514 -5.9% -14.9% 35% 35% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 35% -13.1%
10% -23.0% 33% -21.4%
15% -30.4% 31% -29.0%
20% -37.3% 29% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$59 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses181 / 333
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)514 / 514
History coverage86d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 514 Trades
no open positions (105 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $78 −$74 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 06 $39 −$37 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 06 $26 −$25 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 06 $37 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 06 $7 +$11 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 28 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 28 $7 +$13 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 28 $5 +$16 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 28 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 28 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 26 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 21 $26 +$63 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 21 $26 +$45 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 21 $37 +$58 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 21 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 21 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 21 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 21 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 21 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 21 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 21 $16 +$43 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 21 $16 +$22 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 21 $32 −$5 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $13 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $4 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1344 history records