Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa53…9146
crypto · 23 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$13 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$21 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +84%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $22 −$10 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 77% −$11
politics 23% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -19.3% -27.0% 48% 35% -29.6%
≤30d 23 -19.3% -27.0% 48% 35% -29.6%
≤90d 23 -19.3% -27.0% 48% 35% -29.6%
all 23 -19.3% -27.0% 48% 35% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 35% -29.6%
10% -34.0% 22% -36.3%
15% -40.4% 13% -42.5%
20% -46.2% 9% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records