Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa4c…9671
crypto · 347 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$1,918 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,485 · open −$92
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,808
Realized+$1,485
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses316 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$158
Open positions3
Markets (closed)344 / 347
History coverage68d
Avg bet$658
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 3 History 344 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,179
7 days+$2,569
14 days+$4,046
30 days+$3,055
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 97¢ 100¢ $2,000 $2,047 +$47 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1,900 $1,901 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Yes 87¢ 74¢ $1,000 $861 −$139 (-14%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 90¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 59¢ 0¢ $388 $0 −$388 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Zizou Bergs 72¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 76¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Washington Nationals 97¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $488 +$5 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $1,008 +$10 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,904 +$1,042 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $998 +$9 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,001 +$41 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,010 −$582 -29%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,002 +$83 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $504 −$500 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,903 +$116 +6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $1,007 +$275 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1,003 +$37 +4%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 13 $1,301 +$26 +2%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $1,002 +$52 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $56 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $3,339 +$33 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $2,613 +$26 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2,825 −$166 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,005 +$76 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $2,711 +$27 +1%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $1,503 +$91 +6%
Will Chiefs win? Jun 12 $31 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2,035 +$20 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $3,528 +$35 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $3,406 +$200 +6%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $73 +$16 +21%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,006 +$214 +11%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $1,104 +$146 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $1,054 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,303 +$34 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,702 +$21 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $47 $0 +1%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $1,007 +$322 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $455 +$4 +1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,101 +$22 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $1,403 +$14 +1%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $260 +$10 +4%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1,001 −$1,000 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals Jun 10 $101 +$27 +27%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $505 +$230 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,774 +$103 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,502 +$24 +2%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $202 −$200 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $500 +$10 +2%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $507 +$397 +78%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $500 +$49 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2,001 +$35 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 68% +$1,161
sports 18% +$20
other 13% +$120
culture 1% +$26
world 0% +$49
weather 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $902 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,009 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $255 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 97¢ $2,002 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $807 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $37 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $998 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $1,428 10h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 60¢ $1,428 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $1,476 10h
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 10h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $2,010 11h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $1,001 11h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $1,086 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +2.5% -7.2% 91% 21% -6.5%
≤30d 211 -0.2% -9.7% 90% 23% -7.3%
≤90d 344 +0.2% -9.4% 92% 19% -8.9%
all 344 +0.2% -9.4% 92% 19% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 19% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 8% -17.6%
15% -25.9% 4% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,808.29 · official $4,808.29 (match) · 974 history records