Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa4c…0115 weather 1357 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%1289W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$12
14 days+$11
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 300 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 953 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 1340 -0.4% -9.9% 96% 0% -9.6%
all 1340 -0.4% -9.9% 96% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$423
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1289 / 51
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1340 / 1357
History coverage63d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $24 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 4m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 15m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 15m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 10h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 99¢ $25 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $25 12h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 12h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $25 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.36 · official $423.31 (match) · 2743 history records