Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa4c…7bfd
crypto · 202 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$10,523 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10,700 · open +$176
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,136
Realized−$10,700
Unrealized+$176
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses51 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$2,295
Open positions4
Markets (closed)198 / 202
History coverage33d
Avg bet$1,084
Trades / day57.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 4 History 198 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,257
7 days−$2,051
14 days+$14,932
30 days−$1,842
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1,026 $1,208 +$182 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1,108 $1,101 −$7 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 58¢ 62¢ $496 $524 +$28 (+6%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $330 $302 −$27 (-8%)
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 19¢ 0¢ $623 $0 −$623 (-100%)
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Mexico 19¢ 0¢ $129 $0 −$129 (-100%)
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1,100 $0 −$1,100 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? No 1¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $1,357 $0 −$1,357 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 12¢ 0¢ $490 $0 −$490 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1,366 $0 −$1,366 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? No 30¢ 0¢ $2,055 $0 −$2,055 (-100%)
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Clement Tabur Clement Tabur 10¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils Gael Monfils 18¢ 0¢ $1,436 $0 −$1,436 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 11¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $397 $0 −$397 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic Dino Prizmic 6¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? No 2¢ 0¢ $882 $0 −$882 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? No 13¢ 0¢ $503 $0 −$503 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? No 7¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $428 $0 −$428 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev Pablo Llamas Ruiz 1¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Zizou Bergs Zizou Bergs 12¢ 0¢ $1,318 $0 −$1,318 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $303 +$331 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $97 +$200 +206%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $113 +$187 +165%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $488 +$538 +110%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $133 −$129 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $87 −$83 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $137 −$130 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $454 −$231 -51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $576 −$543 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$40 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $534 −$503 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $37 −$35 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $172 −$161 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $424 +$1,168 +275%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2,148 −$2,055 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $502 −$490 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $2,491 −$1,437 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $139 −$130 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $2,473 +$968 +39%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1,722 −$968 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,370 +$2,248 +164%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $222 −$208 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,072 −$1,012 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $4,456 −$2,187 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $214 +$6,677 +3124%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1,826 −$757 -42%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $710 +$585 +82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $897 +$1,653 +184%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $524 +$261 +50%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $737 −$719 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $319 +$1,541 +484%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $181 −$169 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $207 −$82 -40%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $2,770 +$2,418 +87%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $524 −$510 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $1,470 −$241 -16%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $1,791 +$3,218 +180%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4,948 +$5,833 +118%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $457 −$446 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $2,985 −$2,915 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $406 +$371 +91%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $807 −$788 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $1,350 +$1,068 +79%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $544 +$986 +181%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 29 $501 −$484 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $1,064 −$713 -67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $1,219 −$1,219 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 41% +$1,143
crypto 25% −$5,274
world 18% −$1,499
other 14% −$5,447
politics 2% +$50
tech 0% +$502
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $202 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $338 9h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 57¢ $300 22h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $297 22h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $97 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $303 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $113 46h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $615 46h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 87¢ $507 46h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 89¢ $519 46h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 19¢ $133 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $488 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $489 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $87 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL No 20¢ $224 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 37¢ $141 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 37¢ $313 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 4¢ $98 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 6¢ $53 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 6¢ $43 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 5¢ $16 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 20¢ $49 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY No 1¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -21.3% -28.8% 28% 28% -39.8%
≤30d 170 +1.1% -8.6% 29% 27% -11.2%
≤90d 198 -8.6% -17.3% 26% 24% -15.6%
all 198 -8.6% -17.3% 26% 24% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover57.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 24% -15.6%
10% -25.2% 24% -23.7%
15% ← realistic here -32.4% 23% -31.1%
20% -39.0% 20% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,136.15 · official $3,136.15 (match) · 1952 history records