Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AA 0xaa4a…4570 crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$374 (+19%) realized +$374 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%56W / 33L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$342
sports 6% +$73
other 3% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +17.7% +6.5% 63% 63% +7.5%
≤30d 89 +17.7% +6.5% 63% 63% +7.5%
≤90d 89 +17.7% +6.5% 63% 63% +7.5%
all 89 +17.7% +6.5% 63% 63% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 63% +7.5%
10% -3.7% 57% -2.8%
15% -13.0% 54% -12.2%
20% -21.5% 44% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$19 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$374
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses56 / 33
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage6d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$36 +140%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 159 history records