Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:23:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AA 0xaa49…bb99 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$717 (+11%) realized −$555 · open +$1,272
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$953per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$2,272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$238
sports 25% +$672
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -29.6% -36.3% 50% 33% -15.4%
≤30d 6 -29.6% -36.3% 50% 33% -15.4%
≤90d 6 -29.6% -36.3% 50% 33% -15.4%
all 6 -29.6% -36.3% 50% 33% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.3% 33% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -42.4% 33% -23.5%
15% -48.0% 33% -30.9%
20% -53.1% 33% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$445 vs −$565 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,272
Realized−$555
Unrealized+$1,272
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$953
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 44¢ 100¢ $1,000 $2,272 +$1,272 (+127%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $642 −$600 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,693 +$46 +3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $477 −$449 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $647 −$647 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,052 +$643 +61%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,105 +$645 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $642 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,057 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,739 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $477 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,693 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $647 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,052 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $526 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $579 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,272.20 · official $2,272.20 (match) · 12 history records