Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:59:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaa48…ad40 crypto 281 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+2%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%189W / 92L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$47
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$66
sports 1% +$10
other 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +6.3% -3.8% 76% 68% -6.1%
≤30d 34 +6.3% -3.8% 76% 68% -6.1%
≤90d 34 +6.3% -3.8% 76% 68% -6.1%
all 281 +2.7% -7.1% 67% 58% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 58% -6.6%
10% -16.0% 39% -15.5%
15% -24.1% 23% -23.7%
20% -31.6% 10% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses189 / 92
Open positions0
Markets (closed)281 / 281
History coverage131d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 281 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$20 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$9 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$26 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $77 −$33 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$22 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $129 −$55 -43%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 05 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 05 $8 +$2 +32%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 05 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 04 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 03 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 03 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 03 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 03 $14 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 03 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 03 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 03 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 03 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 03 $12 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 03 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 03 $7 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $73 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $16 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 758 history records