Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa46…ee20 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$11
other 26% +$4
politics 7% +$1
sports 6% +$1
tech 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.3% -11.6% 25% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 16 -1.2% -10.6% 31% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 16 -1.2% -10.6% 31% 0% -11.1%
all 33 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -9.7%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage302d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $39 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $43 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $150 −$11 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 -11%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $52 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $32 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jan 30 $39 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 30 $36 +$4 +11%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Dec 14 $38 +$1 +2%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 19 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $4 $0 +4%
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 24 $1 $0 +7%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $37 +$1 +4%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 20 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $42 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $38 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $39 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $3 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $5 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $34 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $43 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $43 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $22 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $10 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $20 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $30 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $36 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $36 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $31 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $20 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $21 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.72 · official $41.82 (match) · 111 history records