Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:27:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa46…4a23 politics 416 markets active 1d ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$111 (-3%) realized −$110 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate47%196W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$14
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$37
tech 24% +$30
weather 20% −$59
other 16% +$23
world 9% −$84
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.5% -13.6% 71% 57% -6.9%
≤30d 167 -3.6% -12.8% 56% 25% -10.5%
≤90d 267 -3.1% -12.3% 54% 25% -10.8%
all 415 -3.9% -13.0% 47% 26% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 26% -12.2%
10% -21.3% 15% -20.6%
15% -28.9% 11% -28.3%
20% -35.9% 7% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$110
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses196 / 219
Open positions1
Markets (closed)415 / 416
History coverage143d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 415 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? No 83¢ 70¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 22? Jun 22 $6 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 21? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 18 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $8 −$4 -45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $26 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $8 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $40 +$9 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $4 +$2 +41%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -91%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -91%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -89%
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by Dece Jun 12 $10 −$6 -60%
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by Dece Jun 12 $5 −$3 -54%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$2 -24%
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Ch Jun 12 $10 −$6 -57%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 12 $15 −$4 -28%
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatb Jun 12 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -63%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 83¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23? SELL No 90¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 22? SELL No 91¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23? BUY No 80¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 24? BUY No 83¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 22? SELL No 82¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 22? BUY No 85¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 21? SELL No 94¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 22? BUY No 82¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 90¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? SELL No 65¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 21? BUY No 85¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 84¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? BUY No 81¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? SELL No 75¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 81¢ $6 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 85¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 92¢ $6 9d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 73¢ $4 10d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 81¢ $5 10d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $6 10d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $6 12d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $6 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.20 · official $4.20 (match) · 1680 history records