Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa40…4629
crypto · 846 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$136 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$136 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses446 / 400
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)846 / 846
History coverage93d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 846 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$16
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 59¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $19 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $22 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 04 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 04 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 04 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 04 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 04 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 04 $6 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$135
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -5.5% -14.5% 38% 2% -10.6%
≤30d 292 -6.3% -15.2% 63% 52% -8.6%
≤90d 812 -4.0% -13.2% 54% 39% -10.4%
all 846 -5.2% -14.2% 53% 39% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 39% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 23% -19.5%
15% -29.9% 14% -27.2%
20% -36.8% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.59 · official $0.00 (match) · 3249 history records