Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

AA 0xaa3e…7de5 other 9 markets active 4h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$4 (+35%) realized +$4 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip

Net edge+35%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown42%max

Avg bet$1per market

Trades / day6.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+40.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+55.8%	+40.9%	50%	50%	+52.3%
≤30d	6	+55.8%	+40.9%	50%	50%	+52.3%
≤90d	6	+55.8%	+40.9%	50%	50%	+52.3%
all	6	+55.8%	+40.9%	50%	50%	+52.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+40.9%	50%	+52.3%
10%	+27.5%	50%	+37.7%
15%	+15.1%	50%	+24.4%
20%	+3.9%	50%	+12.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +68% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +56% · $-wt +68% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$4

Realized+$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)6 / 9

History coverage2d

Avg bet$1

Trades / day6.6

Drawdown42%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15?	Down	3¢	3¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-2%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+17%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$2	+$3	+132%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$1	+$2	+226%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$1	+$3	+276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15?	BUY Down	3¢	$2	3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Ilia Topuria	1¢	$1	4h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Aiemann Zahabi	22¢	$1	17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$1	25h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$1	26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$1	26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$1	39h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$1	39h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	39h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.09 · official $4.09 (match) · 13 history records