Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:12:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa3e…dd2a crypto 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (272 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate62%38W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day272.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$158
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (272 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -15.1% -23.2% 62% 36% -12.7%
≤30d 61 -15.1% -23.2% 62% 36% -12.7%
≤90d 61 -15.1% -23.2% 62% 36% -12.7%
all 61 -15.1% -23.2% 62% 36% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover272.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 36% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 18% -21.1%
15% -37.3% 10% -28.7%
20% -43.4% 7% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$26 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses38 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage1d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day272.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $351 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $122 −$19 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $106 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $101 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $105 +$29 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$20 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $202 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $207 −$93 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $202 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $410 +$81 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $353 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $303 +$17 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $152 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $89 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $158 +$68 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $64 +$20 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$9 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$12 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$37 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $176 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $176 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $175 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 355 history records