Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:12:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa3c…3111
crypto · 451 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
−$3,474 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,038 · open −$1,228
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,683
Realized−$6,038
Unrealized−$1,228
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses269 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$548
Open positions6
Markets (closed)445 / 451
History coverage156d
Avg bet$421
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 6 History 445 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,829
7 days−$8,397
14 days−$6,038
30 days−$6,038
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 54¢ 55¢ $2,856 $2,909 +$53 (+2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 32¢ 11¢ $1,928 $669 −$1,259 (-65%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 44¢ 31¢ $95 $67 −$28 (-30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 44¢ 52¢ $31 $37 +$6 (+20%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Curaçao 52¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-62%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 50¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $3,000 $0 −$3,000 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$9 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$14 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $83 −$71 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $65 −$32 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$38 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $86 +$33 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $34 +$12 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $71 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6,092 +$6,174 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,471 −$1,032 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $93 +$26 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$30 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$38 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $97 +$128 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$36 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 55% −$4,429
sports 17% +$12,980
other 16% −$13,172
tech 11% −$2,645
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $88 0m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $22 0m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 12¢ $1 0m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 12¢ $5 0m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 12¢ $5 0m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 12¢ $5 0m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 12¢ $10 0m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 12¢ $10 0m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 12¢ $10 0m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 12¢ $9 0m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 12¢ $9 0m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 12¢ $10 0m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 12¢ $9 0m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 12¢ $3 0m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $7 1m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $68 2m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $1 2m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $11 2m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $54 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $18 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $2,700 6m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 12¢ $1 8m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 18¢ $1,042 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 11m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 6¢ $798 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 414 +1.2% -8.4% 58% 52% -13.2%
≤30d 445 +4.3% -5.6% 60% 54% -11.8%
≤90d 445 +4.3% -5.6% 60% 54% -11.8%
all 445 +4.3% -5.6% 60% 54% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 54% -11.8%
10% -14.7% 46% -20.3%
15% -22.9% 38% -28.0%
20% -30.5% 31% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,682.55 · official $3,696.63 (match) · 2337 history records