Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa3c…40e5 crypto 61 markets active 18h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-5%) realized −$63 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%22W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$227
other 6% +$135
sports 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -35.8% -41.9% 37% 30% -16.3%
≤30d 60 -35.8% -41.9% 37% 30% -16.3%
≤90d 60 -35.8% -41.9% 37% 30% -16.3%
all 60 -35.8% -41.9% 37% 30% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.9% 30% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -47.5% 28% -24.3%
15% -52.6% 23% -31.6%
20% -57.2% 18% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$14 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses22 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage4d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +26%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$13 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$30 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$6 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $128 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $77 +$57 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $126 +$30 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$5 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $15 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.53 · official $8.53 (match) · 142 history records