Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa3b…aacd other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$124 (+6%) realized +$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%24W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days−$91
14 days−$100
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$4
sports 34% −$95
crypto 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -14.7% -22.8% 52% 45% -13.3%
≤30d 47 -18.6% -26.3% 51% 43% -13.6%
≤90d 47 -18.6% -26.3% 51% 43% -13.6%
all 47 -18.6% -26.3% 51% 43% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 43% -13.6%
10% -33.4% 30% -21.9%
15% -39.8% 15% -29.4%
20% -45.7% 13% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$25 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses24 / 23
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage8d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $70 +$19 +26%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $186 −$185 -100%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $181 +$60 +33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $70 +$17 +24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $81 +$26 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $120 +$25 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $36 +$54 +152%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $85 +$17 +20%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $127 +$38 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $105 +$33 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $93 +$12 +13%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $19 −$15 -75%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $97 +$9 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 +$26 +43%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $56 +$34 +62%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $32 +$35 +107%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$49 +474%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$6 +127%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$2 +35%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$1 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -48%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $135 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 74¢ $40 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 5h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 28h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 28h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 28h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $39 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $81 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $81 31h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records