Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AA 0xaa38…bc31 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$199 (+49%) realized +$199 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$209
14 days+$209
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$201
sports 13% +$8
crypto 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +23.2% +11.4% 41% 33% +46.0%
≤30d 30 +22.7% +11.0% 40% 33% +45.0%
≤90d 34 +12.0% +1.3% 38% 32% +38.2%
all 34 +12.0% +1.3% 38% 32% +38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 32% +38.2%
10% -8.4% 29% +25.0%
15% -17.2% 24% +12.9%
20% -25.3% 18% +1.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$4 · ×4.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.08 per $1 lost it wins $3.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage72d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 58¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 $0 -1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$4 +7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $2 +$6 +307%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 +$3 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $50 −$6 -11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$4 +21%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Haiti? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -21%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$5 +73%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $23 +$252 +1106%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 $0 +37%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $1 +$2 +224%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $5 $0 -10%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $5 +$4 +70%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1 $0 -7%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $5 +$1 +29%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 61¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 81¢ $30 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $15 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 78¢ $2 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $47 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $13 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 6h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? SELL No 86¢ $44 8h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY No 96¢ $50 9h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 78¢ $10 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 15h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 45h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 45h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.59 · official $34.59 (match) · 57 history records