Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa37…d346
weather · 1247 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$173 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$62 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$549
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1238 / 2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1240 / 1247
History coverage40d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day56.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 1240 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$56
14 days+$101
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $150 $149 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $124 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $148 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $146 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $89 42m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $49 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $45 10h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $105 10h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $52 10h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $21 10h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $46 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $11 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $18 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 11h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 17h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 252 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 919 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 1240 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.5%
all 1240 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover56.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $549.12 · official $548.99 (match) · 3500 history records