Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:41:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AA 0xaa36…bd96 crypto 1044 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,294 (-18%) realized −$2,294 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate65%682W / 362L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day57.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$125
14 days−$149
30 days−$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$587
sports 16% −$99
politics 3% −$35
weather 2% −$31
other 1% +$10
world 1% −$31
culture 0% +$10
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -9.1% -17.8% 65% 36% -14.6%
≤30d 250 -7.3% -16.1% 68% 47% -16.0%
≤90d 1044 -6.4% -15.3% 65% 50% -15.0%
all 1044 -6.4% -15.3% 65% 50% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 50% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 32% -23.1%
15% -30.8% 19% -30.6%
20% -37.6% 13% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,294
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses682 / 362
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1044 / 1044
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1044 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Esport BERG (BO3) - Urban Riga Open #5 Pla Jun 29 $39 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $41 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $58 +$4 +6%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 29 $5 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $18 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $61 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs Aimhaus - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - Un Jun 29 $4 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Julie&cie vs eternal premium (BO3) - European Pro Leag Jun 29 $9 +$1 +8%
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 29 $189 −$188 -100%
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $140 +$6 +4%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $56 +$14 +25%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $69 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $127 +$2 +1%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor Jun 29 $43 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $1 +$1 +82%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $106 +$7 +6%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $150 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner Jun 28 $33 +$17 +50%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P Jun 28 $93 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions Jun 28 $125 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng Jun 28 $63 +$63 +100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $78 −$57 -73%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series P Jun 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $30 +$24 +80%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $0 $0 -27%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 28 $1 $0 -12%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7 +$3 +43%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $19 +$3 +18%
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 28 $38 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: GAMEHARMONY vs Aimhaus (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Grou Jun 28 $14 +$6 +43%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Prestige - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $49 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Prestige (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 28 $9 +$1 +15%
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $39 +$8 +20%
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 28 $32 +$8 +25%
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $34 +$6 +19%
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $32 +$4 +14%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $47 +$10 +20%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL Nort Jun 27 $20 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $15 +$5 +31%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $11 +$4 +33%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick W Jun 27 $15 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: C9 vs DNS Jun 27 $8 +$3 +35%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Esport BERG (BO3) - Urban Riga Open #5 Pla SELL Leo Team 100¢ $40 33m
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Esport BERG (BO3) - Urban Riga Open #5 Pla BUY Leo Team 95¢ $19 35m
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Esport BERG (BO3) - Urban Riga Open #5 Pla BUY Leo Team 98¢ $20 39m
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 2 Winner SELL paiN Academy 100¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Blitzkrieg - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN Academy 94¢ $41 2h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 2 Winner SELL ENJOY 100¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy (BO3) - European Pro League SELL ENJOY 100¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY ENJOY 94¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy (BO3) - European Pro League BUY ENJOY 95¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY ENJOY 51¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 2 Winner SELL ENJOY 46¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Donstu Esports 100¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY ENJOY 31¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY ENJOY 31¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY ENJOY 54¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Donstu Esports 91¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Donstu Esports 91¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY ENJOY 69¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 1 Winner SELL ENJOY 100¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 1 Winner SELL ENJOY 100¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 1 Winner SELL ENJOY 100¢ $25 3h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY ENJOY 98¢ $15 3h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY ENJOY 99¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 1 Winner SELL ENJOY 90¢ $18 3h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 2 Winner SELL ENJOY 85¢ $18 3h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY ENJOY 83¢ $18 3h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY ENJOY 88¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY ENJOY 88¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 1 Winner SELL ENJOY 92¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 1 Winner SELL ENJOY 92¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records