Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:03:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AA 0xaa33…4167 crypto 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-4%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +8.2% -2.1% 59% 41% -1.3%
≤30d 29 +8.2% -2.1% 59% 41% -1.3%
≤90d 29 +8.2% -2.1% 59% 41% -1.3%
all 29 +8.2% -2.1% 59% 41% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.1% 41% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 31% -10.8%
15% -20.0% 21% -19.4%
20% -27.9% 14% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $94 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $90 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $71 +$20 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $55 +$15 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $54 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $43 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $32 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$13 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$22 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$33 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$19 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $94 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $90 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $71 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.45 · official $106.45 (match) · 54 history records