Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

AA 0xaa32…58dc sports 35 markets active 6h ago coverage 228d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$165 (-4%) realized −$265 · open +$100

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate36%10W / 18L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$121per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$1,980now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$8

7 days−$8

14 days−$8

30 days−$8

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-36.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	28	-29.4%	-36.1%	36%	36%	-21.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-36.1%	36%	-21.4%
10%	-42.2%	36%	-28.9%
15%	-47.8%	36%	-35.8%
20%	-52.9%	32%	-42.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -29% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +19% → late -77% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$85 vs −$62 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.76 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage

Net worth$1,980

Realized−$265

Unrealized+$100

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses10 / 18

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions7

Markets (closed)28 / 35

History coverage228d

Avg bet$121

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 28 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	2¢	$400	$750	+$350 (+88%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$400	$367	−$33 (-8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$400	$300	−$100 (-25%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$200	$233	+$33 (+17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$200	$150	−$50 (-25%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$200	$118	−$82 (-41%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$80	$62	−$18 (-22%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Austria (-3.5)	Jun 17	$8	−$8	-97%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner	Feb 04	$9	−$9	-100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 3 Winner	Feb 04	$20	−$20	-100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance	Feb 04	$10	−$10	-100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner	Feb 04	$17	−$17	-100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 2 Winner	Feb 04	$60	−$60	-100%
Trail Blazers vs. Kings	Feb 04	$40	+$17	+43%
LoL: T1 Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner	Feb 04	$59	−$59	-100%
LoL: ZSM vs LGD Gaming (BO3)	Dec 15	$40	−$40	-100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	Dec 14	$20	+$14	+72%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5)	Dec 14	$95	−$95	-100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	Dec 14	$100	−$100	-100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)	Dec 14	$100	−$100	-100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5)	Dec 13	$100	−$100	-100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	Dec 13	$100	+$167	+167%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	Dec 13	$100	−$100	-100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	Dec 13	$100	−$100	-100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner	Dec 12	$100	−$100	-100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 09	$318	−$55	-17%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	Nov 09	$100	−$100	-100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	Nov 09	$200	+$138	+69%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	Nov 09	$100	+$125	+125%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner	Nov 02	$100	+$56	+56%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner	Nov 02	$100	+$59	+59%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner	Nov 02	$100	+$56	+56%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 02	$100	+$89	+89%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	Nov 01	$55	+$132	+241%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	Nov 01	$50	−$50	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Austria (-3.5)	BUY Austria	10¢	$8	5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$82	7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$412	7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$206	7d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$206	7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$206	7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$206	7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$412	7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$206	7d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team WE	57¢	$9	132d
LoL: T1 Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 3 Winner	BUY HANJIN BRION Challengers	32¢	$20	132d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance	BUY Team WE	26¢	$10	132d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner	BUY Team WE	17¢	$17	132d
LoL: T1 Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 2 Winner	BUY HANJIN BRION Challengers	35¢	$60	132d
LoL: T1 Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner	BUY HANJIN BRION Challengers	43¢	$59	132d
Trail Blazers vs. Kings	BUY Trail Blazers	70¢	$40	180d
LoL: ZSM vs LGD Gaming (BO3)	BUY ZSM	43¢	$40	183d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	SELL Hanwha Life Esports	100¢	$34	184d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5)	BUY Hanwha Life Esports	20¢	$80	184d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	BUY Hanwha Life Esports	58¢	$20	184d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5)	BUY Hanwha Life Esports	18¢	$15	184d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	BUY Hanwha Life Esports	59¢	$100	185d
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)	BUY Thunder	70¢	$100	185d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5)	BUY Dplus KIA	37¢	$100	185d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	SELL Dplus KIA	100¢	$267	185d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	BUY Dplus KIA	36¢	$100	185d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	BUY Dplus KIA	37¢	$100	185d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	BUY T1	67¢	$100	186d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner	BUY Dplus KIA	32¢	$100	186d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY KT Rolster	37¢	$50	219d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,980.18 · official $1,980.18 (match) · 65 history records