trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? | Yes | 8¢ | 4¢ | $38 | $17 | −$21 (-55%) |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? | Yes | 3¢ | 1¢ | $15 | $7 | −$8 (-53%) |
| Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $1 | −$14 (-96%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election | Jun 13 | $30 | −$27 | -90% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $21 | −$12 | -57% |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect | Jun 10 | $108 | −$61 | -57% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 10 | $276 | −$129 | -47% |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election | Jun 10 | $14 | +$22 | +155% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -19.3% | -27.0% | 20% | 20% | -51.2% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -19.3% | -27.0% | 20% | 20% | -51.2% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -19.3% | -27.0% | 20% | 20% | -51.2% |
| all | 5 | -19.3% | -27.0% | 20% | 20% | -51.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -27.0% | 20% | -51.2% |
| 10% | -34.0% | 20% | -55.9% |
| 15% | -40.3% | 20% | -60.2% |
| 20% | -46.2% | 20% | -64.1% |