Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AA 0xaa2e…9d98 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$66
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -36.3% -42.4% 50% 50% +13.0%
≤30d 2 -36.3% -42.4% 50% 50% +13.0%
≤90d 2 -36.3% -42.4% 50% 50% +13.0%
all 2 -36.3% -42.4% 50% 50% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.4% 50% +13.0%
10% -47.9% 50% +2.2%
15% -52.9% 0% -7.7%
20% -57.5% 0% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×13.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.77 per $1 lost it wins $13.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Aoyama/Chan 57¢ 52¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Tiana Tian Deng 57¢ 100¢ $50 $88 +$38 (+75%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ 50¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+53%)
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 56¢ 59¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Varvara Panshina 94¢ 81¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 17 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $51 59m
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li BUY Varvara Panshina 94¢ $50 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 57¢ $51 2h
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner BUY Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 56¢ $51 3h
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh BUY Chan-Yeong Oh 78¢ $50 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 57¢ $51 13h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 57¢ $51 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.06 · official $350.24 (match) · 9 history records