Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AA 0xaa2c…0fcd crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$622 (-22%) realized −$622 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%10W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$129
14 days+$181
30 days+$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$112
economics 31% −$279
crypto 10% −$199
sports 5% +$104
other 5% −$82
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +194.3% +166.2% 40% 40% +108.6%
≤30d 11 +236.8% +204.7% 36% 36% +72.6%
≤90d 11 +236.8% +204.7% 36% 36% +72.6%
all 55 +7.6% -2.7% 18% 13% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 13% -27.9%
10% -12.0% 13% -34.8%
15% -20.5% 13% -41.1%
20% -28.3% 13% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +91% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late +76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$22 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$622
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses10 / 45
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage207d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $36 −$7 -19%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$73 +714%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $22 +$83 +383%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$10 +191%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 +$114 +1843%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Trump say "Hockey" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Olympic" or "Olympics" during the 2026 State of the Un Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Egg" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Alien" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 24 $878 −$279 -32%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 31 $399 −$30 -8%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 31 $234 −$144 -62%
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? Jan 31 $8 −$2 -29%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Jan 31 $24 −$3 -12%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $61 −$27 -44%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Jan 31 $99 +$2 +2%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jan 31 $15 −$1 -5%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jan 30 $187 +$8 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Jan 30 $356 +$19 +6%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 17 $3 +$9 +300%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 4? Jan 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 4? Jan 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 20? Dec 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 19? Dec 19 $4 −$4 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 19? Dec 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 19? Dec 19 $6 −$3 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 19? Dec 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 16? Dec 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 16? Dec 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 15? Dec 15 $14 +$26 +179%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 15? Dec 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 13? Dec 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 9? Dec 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 9? Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 9? Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 9? Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 9? Dec 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 6 Dec 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 6 Dec 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on December 6 Dec 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on December 6? Dec 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 7¢ $12 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 16h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 16h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 16h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $27 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $13 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $16 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $9 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $25 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $6 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.17 · official $6.17 (match) · 248 history records