Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:31:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AA 0xaa2c…bfcf other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-23%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$14
world 35% −$5
sports 18% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -34.0% -40.3% 33% 33% -2.4%
≤30d 6 -34.0% -40.3% 33% 33% -2.4%
≤90d 7 -43.4% -48.8% 29% 29% -11.1%
all 7 -43.4% -48.8% 29% 29% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.8% 29% -11.1%
10% -53.7% 29% -19.6%
15% -58.2% 14% -27.4%
20% -62.3% 14% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage30d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $14 +$13 +93%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $20 −$5 -26%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $12 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 5h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 7h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $15 7h
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $5 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $20 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records