Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaa29…5c13 other 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$158 (+10%) realized +$199 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$12
sports 35% +$34
world 7% +$18
crypto 1% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +42.1% +28.6% 25% 25% +1.5%
≤30d 60 +42.1% +28.6% 25% 25% +1.5%
≤90d 60 +42.1% +28.6% 25% 25% +1.5%
all 60 +42.1% +28.6% 25% 25% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.6% 25% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here +16.3% 23% -8.2%
15% +5.0% 22% -17.0%
20% -5.3% 17% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$17 · ×3.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$199
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 45
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions8
Markets (closed)60 / 68
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-97%)
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 +$27 +27%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 +$108 +526%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $21 +$179 +874%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $173 −$171 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$59 -58%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $20 +$181 +884%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $132 −$13 -10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $81 +$29 +36%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -41%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $21 +$146 +712%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 +$78 +1521%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 +$44 +109%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $25 +$10 +38%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -43%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -48%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$14 -70%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 +$5 +15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 58m
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 4h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 89¢ $128 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 6h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 87¢ $129 22h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 23h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 23h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 23h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 23h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 28h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 28h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 28h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 30h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 17¢ $15 30h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 16¢ $28 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $41 31h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $102 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.12 · official $72.15 · 103 history records