Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa28…8d4e other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-1%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$372per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 81% −$14
politics 11% −$6
other 4% +$2
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% −$85
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 -0.6% -10.0% 23% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 29 -5.7% -14.7% 17% 7% -17.9%
all 44 -4.0% -13.1% 20% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 5% -10.1%
10% -21.4% 5% -18.7%
15% -29.0% 5% -26.5%
20% -36.0% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage605d
Avg bet$372
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $8 +$4 +44%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $97 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $49 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $46 $0 -0%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 09 $8 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Islanders Mar 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bucks vs. Heat Mar 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 05 $88 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $87 +$1 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 22 $13,593 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $2 $0 -3%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 28 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $309 $0 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $524 −$3 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $635 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $390 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 3d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 21d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 23d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 26d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 27d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 51¢ $5 27d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 29d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 40¢ $4 32d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 36d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 36d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 69¢ $8 38d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $49 40d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $49 40d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 41d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.97 · official $30.97 (match) · 246 history records