Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:08:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AA 0xaa27…329e world 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+1%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate35%28W / 51L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$55
14 days+$47
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$42
sports 26% −$2
other 22% +$36
politics 11% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.4% -4.7% 67% 33% -3.8%
≤30d 27 +74.7% +58.1% 33% 15% -8.6%
≤90d 40 +50.9% +36.5% 30% 12% -9.1%
all 79 +26.5% +14.5% 35% 10% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.5% 10% -9.0%
10% +3.5% 6% -17.7%
15% -6.5% 5% -25.7%
20% -15.6% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +51% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses28 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage484d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $184 $185 +$0 (+0%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $184 +$23 +13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $212 +$10 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $149 +$19 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $126 +$3 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $151 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $32 +$5 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $88 −$7 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $15 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $366 −$5 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $586 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $296 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $148 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $127 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $144 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $192 −$15 -8%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 01 $144 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $148 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $312 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $124 +$10 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $149 +$2 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $193 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $108 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $9 +$3 +33%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $78 −$2 -2%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $1,123 +$23 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,063 +$7 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $1,015 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 18 $1,014 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $27 −$1 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $2,132 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $119 −$15 -12%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 20 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will Francesca Muñoz win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 24 $9 +$11 +121%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Croatia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 10 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $94 59m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $90 59m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $203 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $206 6h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $147 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $149 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 86¢ $207 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 76¢ $184 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $15 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $169 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $183 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $8 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $168 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $149 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $129 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $126 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $29 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $144 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $7 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $151 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $37 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.23 · official $187.39 (match) · 305 history records