Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AA 0xaa25…defd other 60 markets active 4h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%13W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$10
other 34% −$15
crypto 5% +$2
sports 2% +$41
tech 2% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 46 +11.9% +1.2% 22% 17% -8.7%
all 60 +8.9% -1.4% 22% 13% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 13% -9.2%
10% -10.9% 13% -17.9%
15% -19.5% 13% -25.9%
20% -27.4% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses13 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage592d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $125 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $111 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $10 +$6 +65%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $113 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $109 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $220 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $107 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $104 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 26 $114 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $326 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $109 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $106 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $109 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $104 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $111 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $110 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 +$9 +172%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +83%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $11 +$8 +72%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $6 +$4 +70%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $5 +$6 +104%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $9 +$7 +79%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 +$8 +104%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-20? Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 06 $25 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 06 $50 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Mar 05 $94 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $94 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 29 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 4h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 4h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 26h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 27h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 8d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 9d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 9d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $61 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $14 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $7 16d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 17d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 17d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $23 18d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $23 18d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $22 24d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $22 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $39 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 256 history records