Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:15:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaa24…a75c sports 677 markets active 1h ago coverage 342d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,562 (+5%) realized +$4,166 · open −$604
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%335W / 335L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1,064est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$269
7 days+$1,376
14 days+$1,715
30 days−$4,155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$3,368
crypto 9% −$699
other 1% −$506
economics 0% −$38
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -2.8% -12.1% 47% 47% +0.8%
≤30d 215 -14.2% -22.4% 43% 43% -18.4%
≤90d 665 +3.0% -6.8% 50% 50% -6.4%
all 670 +3.2% -6.7% 50% 50% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 50% -6.3%
10% -15.6% 48% -15.3%
15% -23.7% 48% -23.5%
20% -31.2% 44% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$104 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

342d coverage
Net worth$378
Realized+$4,166
Unrealized−$604
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses335 / 335
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1,064
Open positions5
Markets (closed)670 / 677
History coverage342d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 670 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 62¢ 42¢ $210 $144 −$66 (-31%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ 6¢ $350 $35 −$315 (-90%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ 3¢ $222 $13 −$209 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$77 -74%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $304 +$230 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$14 +14%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $577 −$120 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $206 +$166 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $310 +$273 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $939 +$268 +29%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $152 +$167 +109%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $203 +$142 +70%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $243 +$178 +73%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $203 −$195 -96%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $203 −$195 -96%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $203 +$168 +83%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $203 +$214 +105%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $227 +$180 +79%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $457 +$1,691 +370%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $204 +$323 +158%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $528 −$520 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $814 +$1,137 +140%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $304 +$213 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $307 −$300 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $264 +$250 +95%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $152 +$142 +93%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $142 +$169 +119%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $122 −$120 -98%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $142 −$140 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $162 −$160 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $152 −$150 -98%
Set Handicap: Krejcikova (-1.5) vs Linette (+1.5) Jun 13 $112 −$110 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$197 +97%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $127 +$101 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $127 +$101 +79%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $122 +$265 +216%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $127 −$125 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $101 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $101 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $225 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $212 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 56¢ $152 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a BUY 15¢ $154 2h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 94¢ $535 2h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republi BUY 6¢ $130 4h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 9h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 48¢ $203 14h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $203 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $68 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $40 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.84 · official $389.90 · 1583 history records