trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 25% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -14.7% | -22.9% | 29% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -8.5% | -17.2% | 44% | 11% | -9.5% |
| all | 17 | -2.4% | -11.7% | 71% | 12% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.7% | 12% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -20.1% | 6% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -27.8% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -34.9% | 0% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $180 | $180 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $15 | $15 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 91¢ | 90¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 89¢ | 88¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 14¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-11%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET | Jun 20 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Jun 20 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Jun 20 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 20 | $200 | $0 | +0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET | Jun 02 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 30 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Mar 23 | $5 | +$1 | +27% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? | Mar 23 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? | Feb 09 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 30 | $5 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Jan 12 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will The Weeknd be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Jan 09 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Jan 09 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Wizards vs. Rockets | Nov 25 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Nov 25 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 25 | $2 | $0 | +14% |