Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa21…d77e world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$10
world 25% −$15
sports 13% +$3
economics 11% $0
politics 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -23.6% -30.9% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -10.8% -19.3% 38% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 27 -8.4% -17.1% 37% 0% -9.7%
all 33 -12.3% -20.6% 36% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 3% -10.2%
10% -28.2% 0% -18.8%
15% -35.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -41.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage523d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 64¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $30 −$9 -31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $27 +$1 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $48 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $98 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $32 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $4 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $37 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $35 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $62 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $23 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $34 −$1 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $16 −$6 -35%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 22 $21 +$1 +3%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $377 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $260 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $260 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $261 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $293 +$3 +1%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-02-15? Mar 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? Feb 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 12? Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Baylor vs. Houston Feb 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Fox News Oval Office inter Feb 05 $7 +$1 +20%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Jan 22 $9 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $18 58m
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $18 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 30¢ $20 23h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 41¢ $30 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $27 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $13 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $7 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $27 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $27 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records