Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:41:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa20…dcf2 other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%16W / 110L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$13
14 days−$29
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$21
politics 24% −$13
sports 23% −$25
crypto 5% −$9
economics 4% −$1
finance 4% −$2
culture 3% −$2
world 2% −$2
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.8% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 71 -1.1% -10.5% 7% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 115 -0.8% -10.2% 10% 0% -10.0%
all 126 -0.7% -10.2% 13% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses16 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage100d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $71 −$1 -2%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $94 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $62 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $98 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $53 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $52 $0 -1%
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Scotland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $144 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 11 $56 −$2 -3%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $107 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 11 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $61 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 10 $61 −$2 -4%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 07 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $115 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $53 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $157 −$2 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $165 −$2 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $61 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $177 −$1 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $92 $0 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $53 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 03 $45 −$1 -2%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $53 −$1 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 02 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $132 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $64 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 2h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 6h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $39 6h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $15 10h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $24 10h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 11h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 15h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $55 15h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $55 22h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $50 22h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $50 30h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $39 31h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $39 39h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $56 39h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 45h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $60 45h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $62 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $59 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $53 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $53 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $53 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $53 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $26 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $26 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $53 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $53 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $49 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.01 · official $64.01 (match) · 481 history records