Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa17…5178 crypto 286 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-4%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%134W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$19
14 days+$5
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$61
other 4% −$13
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 -4.9% -14.0% 50% 49% -7.0%
≤30d 231 -9.2% -17.9% 45% 44% -13.0%
≤90d 286 -7.1% -16.0% 47% 46% -13.9%
all 286 -7.1% -16.0% 47% 46% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 46% -13.9%
10% -24.0% 45% -22.2%
15% -31.4% 43% -29.7%
20% -38.1% 41% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses134 / 152
Open positions0
Markets (closed)286 / 286
History coverage65d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 286 Trades
no open positions (92 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$13 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 577 history records