Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:02:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa15…65b1
other · 128 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$108 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$141 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized−$141
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses42 / 94
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)136 / 128
History coverage92d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%
Chart Positions 3 History 136 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$44
14 days−$47
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $13 −$3 (-17%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $8 −$6 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $8 −$4 -50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $62 −$25 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $72 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $19 +$24 +121%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $16 −$13 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $16 −$7 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $24 +$13 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $8 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $8 −$3 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $25 +$21 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $16 −$5 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $47 +$20 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $49 −$18 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $22 +$25 +113%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $29 −$18 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $29 −$27 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $21 −$11 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $2 +$1 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $5 −$1 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 06 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $6 +$13 +212%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $11 +$8 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $7 −$3 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $9 −$6 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $8 −$6 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $10 −$2 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 88% −$135
sports 9% +$15
crypto 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 10h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $45 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $47 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $43 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -67.3% -70.4% 5% 5% -28.2%
≤30d 35 -41.5% -47.0% 20% 14% -14.9%
≤90d 135 -19.8% -27.5% 30% 24% -18.4%
all 136 -19.6% -27.3% 31% 24% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 24% -18.4%
10% -34.2% 20% -26.2%
15% -40.6% 16% -33.3%
20% -46.4% 15% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.02 · official $29.02 (match) · 528 history records