Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:54:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa11…650b sports 323 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$425 (-2%) realized −$427 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate91%291W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days−$79
14 days−$686
30 days−$456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$455
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -0.6% -10.1% 92% 9% -10.7%
≤30d 320 -1.9% -11.2% 91% 10% -11.3%
≤90d 320 -1.9% -11.2% 91% 10% -11.3%
all 320 -1.9% -11.2% 91% 10% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 10% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 2% -19.7%
15% -27.5% 1% -27.5%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$62 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$427
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses291 / 29
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions3
Markets (closed)320 / 323
History coverage17d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 320 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 96¢ 99¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+4%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 98¢ 100¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 96¢ 95¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $42 +$9 +21%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $42 +$2 +5%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $42 +$2 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $42 +$1 +3%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $42 +$1 +1%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $42 +$3 +6%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $28 +$2 +7%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $42 $0 +1%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez Jun 16 $42 +$1 +3%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $42 +$2 +4%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $42 +$1 +2%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Jun 16 $42 +$2 +5%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $42 +$2 +4%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $42 +$2 +5%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $42 +$2 +5%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini Jun 16 $42 +$2 +5%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $42 +$1 +3%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $42 +$2 +4%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $42 +$2 +5%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $42 +$3 +6%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $42 +$2 +4%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $42 +$1 +3%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $42 +$2 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $42 +$12 +27%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $42 +$1 +3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $42 +$2 +5%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $42 +$1 +3%
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $42 +$3 +6%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $42 +$6 +14%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Jun 15 $42 +$3 +6%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $42 +$2 +5%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $42 +$3 +6%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Jun 15 $42 +$2 +4%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $42 +$2 +4%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $42 +$1 +2%
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 15 $42 +$4 +8%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $42 +$2 +4%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $42 +$1 +3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $42 +$2 +5%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $42 +$2 +4%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $42 +$4 +8%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $42 +$16 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 96¢ $42 10m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 96¢ $42 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 95¢ $42 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 97¢ $42 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $42 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $42 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 95¢ $42 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 93¢ $28 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 94¢ $42 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $42 4h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 97¢ $42 11h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 96¢ $42 11h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 98¢ $42 11h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 99¢ $42 11h
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain BUY Gilles Arnaud Bailly 95¢ $42 11h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 96¢ $42 13h
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 95¢ $42 14h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 95¢ $42 15h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 99¢ $42 15h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 99¢ $42 15h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Bernard Tomic 95¢ $42 16h
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 97¢ $42 16h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Michele Ribecai 99¢ $42 17h
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini BUY Mees Rottgering 95¢ $42 17h
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Hynek Barton 95¢ $42 17h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Madison Keys 96¢ $42 17h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 99¢ $42 18h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 96¢ $42 24h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 94¢ $42 24h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 97¢ $42 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.97 · official $127.91 (match) · 656 history records