Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:43:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AA 0xaa10…2f05 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%23W / 9L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$9
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$5
other 6% +$1
sports 5% $0
politics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.5% -7.3% 80% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 16 +0.8% -8.8% 56% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 16 +0.8% -8.8% 56% 0% -8.9%
all 32 +1.2% -8.4% 72% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses23 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage468d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $38 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $67 +$5 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $75 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $65 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $36 −$3 -9%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18? Apr 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Michigan State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 29 $14 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Mar 27 $2 $0 +10%
Israel military action against Iranian nuclear facility in March? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Friday? Mar 11 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $44 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $23 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $15 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $14 34h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $29 34h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $43 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $1 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $31 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $32 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $38 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $2 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $12 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $12 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $35 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $32 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $38 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 99¢ $38 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $6 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $28 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.86 · official $43.86 (match) · 101 history records