Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:34:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa10…065a sports 522 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-1%) realized −$51 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%265W / 252L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$575
7 days−$363
14 days−$44
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$253
other 16% −$41
crypto 5% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -11.7% -20.1% 48% 46% -13.4%
≤30d 228 -10.2% -18.8% 50% 47% -10.9%
≤90d 517 -7.3% -16.2% 51% 46% -12.0%
all 517 -7.3% -16.2% 51% 46% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 46% -12.0%
10% -24.2% 42% -20.5%
15% -31.5% 38% -28.1%
20% -38.2% 33% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$23 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses265 / 252
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions5
Markets (closed)517 / 522
History coverage88d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 517 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 57¢ 62¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+10%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 60¢ 41¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-32%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 44¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-34%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 48¢ 22¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-54%)
Pavel Šulc: 2+ shots Yes 57¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $45 +$12 +26%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $25 +$6 +25%
Denis Višinský: 1+ shots Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $51 +$51 +101%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $50 +$14 +27%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 18 $25 +$21 +83%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 18 $15 +$30 +196%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Sabalenka vs. Alexandrova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $35 +$19 +55%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $76 +$51 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $25 +$19 +73%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $15 +$29 +188%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $55 +$9 +16%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $30 +$10 +32%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $43 +$21 +48%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $25 +$6 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$9 +36%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $28 −$1 -3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $46 −$2 -4%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $211 +$101 +48%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $177 +$85 +48%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$22 +72%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $30 +$30 +97%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $76 +$41 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$17 +34%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $30 +$26 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $14 28m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 57¢ $29 1h
Denis Višinský: 1+ shots BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3h
Pavel Šulc: 2+ shots BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3h
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $21 3h
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $9 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $25 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $45 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 60¢ $15 4h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 47¢ $51 7h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $50 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 78¢ $50 7h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 49¢ $51 9h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 29¢ $77 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 33¢ $15 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $25 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $25 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $10 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $15 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $35 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $76 20h
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY No 91¢ $10 23h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 75¢ $30 23h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY No 81¢ $35 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 23h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY No 87¢ $40 23h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 82¢ $45 23h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 86¢ $55 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $60 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.46 · official $21.75 · 1357 history records