Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AA 0xaa10…fbd7 other 7 markets active 9h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-10%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$5
crypto 32% −$10
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -17.2% -25.1% 67% 33% -28.3%
≤30d 6 -17.2% -25.1% 67% 33% -28.3%
≤90d 6 -17.2% -25.1% 67% 33% -28.3%
all 6 -17.2% -25.1% 67% 33% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 33% -28.3%
10% -32.3% 17% -35.2%
15% -38.8% 17% -41.4%
20% -44.8% 0% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$9 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.10 · official $15.10 (match) · 17 history records