Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa0f…3209 crypto 173 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$269 (-9%) realized −$249 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%52W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$343
world 4% −$6
sports 3% +$6
other 1% $0
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 168 -25.3% -32.4% 31% 29% -19.4%
all 168 -25.3% -32.4% 31% 29% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 29% -19.4%
10% -38.8% 26% -27.1%
15% -44.8% 22% -34.1%
20% -50.2% 18% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$249
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses52 / 116
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)168 / 173
History coverage71d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 12? May 12 $72 −$68 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 11 $26 +$22 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 11? May 11 $62 −$58 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 11? May 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 11? May 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 11? May 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 10? May 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 8? May 08 $48 −$45 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 7? May 07 $11 +$83 +780%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 7? May 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $13 −$12 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 6? May 06 $170 +$60 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 6? May 06 $32 −$15 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 5? May 05 $27 −$25 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $26 +$23 +87%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 4? May 04 $27 −$25 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 4? May 04 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 3? May 03 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 1? May 01 $5 +$17 +328%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 1? May 01 $11 +$42 +396%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 1? May 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 1? May 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 30? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 30? Apr 30 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $21 +$119 +562%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 29? Apr 29 $11 −$10 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 29? Apr 29 $11 −$10 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $72 +$73 +101%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 24? Apr 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 28? Apr 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 28? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 28? Apr 28 $30 −$28 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 15? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 24? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 26? Apr 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 15? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 24? Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 23? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 24? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 19m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $35 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $37 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 38d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 11? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 39d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 11? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 40d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 8? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 41d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 8? BUY Yes 26¢ $22 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 7? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 6? SELL Yes 41¢ $38 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 6? SELL Yes 29¢ $52 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 24¢ $53 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 14¢ $27 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 6? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 6? SELL Yes 54¢ $124 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 37¢ $91 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 12¢ $27 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 4? SELL Yes 74¢ $49 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.44 · official $40.45 (match) · 344 history records