Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:23:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa0e…841b politics 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$30 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$8
politics 39% +$16
sports 4% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-57.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -52.9% -57.3% 0% 0% -22.1%
≤30d 2 -52.9% -57.3% 0% 0% -22.1%
≤90d 2 -52.9% -57.3% 0% 0% -22.1%
all 2 -52.9% -57.3% 0% 0% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.3% 0% -22.1%
10% -61.4% 0% -29.5%
15% -65.2% 0% -36.3%
20% -68.6% 0% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$16 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)2 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 9¢ 10¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+17%)
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? Yes 15¢ 30¢ $11 $21 +$11 (+101%)
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? Yes 0¢ 6¢ $0 $14 +$14 (+0%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-50%)
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $211 −$12 -6%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership el BUY Yes 6¢ $15 0m
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e SELL Yes 29¢ $15 0m
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $9 15m
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $16 18m
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $24 35m
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY Yes 44¢ $35 1h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e SELL Yes 29¢ $35 1h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY Yes 4¢ $6 7h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e SELL Yes 14¢ $1 7h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $5 7h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $5 7h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e SELL Yes 13¢ $10 7h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 2¢ $16 7h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $46 7h
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY Yes 41¢ $61 7h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY Yes 17¢ $31 7h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $158 7h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY Yes 13¢ $21 11h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $5 11h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $16 11h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 20h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $20 20h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $92 26h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $120 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.67 · official $172.69 (match) · 25 history records