Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaa0b…c13f sports 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$129 (-4%) realized −$108 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate70%14W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$815now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$64
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$39
other 42% +$13
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.5% -31.7% 56% 44% -7.0%
≤30d 9 -24.5% -31.7% 56% 44% -7.0%
≤90d 9 -24.5% -31.7% 56% 44% -7.0%
all 20 -6.2% -15.1% 70% 65% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 65% -6.7%
10% -23.3% 35% -15.7%
15% -30.7% 20% -23.8%
20% -37.5% 5% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$36 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$815
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage200d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $830 $809 −$21 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 24 $722 +$110 +15%
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 24 $655 −$57 -9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland wi Jun 24 $493 +$89 +18%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $180 +$26 +14%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Jun 24 $100 +$35 +35%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $76 −$75 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 13 $10 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: Oramond vs BIG (BO3) Dec 13 $29 +$3 +11%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs 9INE (BO3) Dec 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Dec 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Pacers vs. 76ers Dec 13 $10 +$5 +47%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Dec 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) Dec 12 $7 +$3 +38%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 12 $30 +$9 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) Dec 12 $5 +$2 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 08 $1 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA (BO3) Dec 08 $2 +$2 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 8m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 91¢ $832 19m
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group SELL QoR 100¢ $832 21m
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner SELL QoR 100¢ $5 21m
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY QoR 90¢ $20 25m
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY QoR 98¢ $500 31m
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Betclic Apogee Esports 81¢ $519 31m
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner BUY QoR 95¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 70¢ $454 1h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL OG 32¢ $79 1h
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY QoR 64¢ $101 1h
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY QoR 67¢ $101 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland wi SELL 99¢ $581 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland wi BUY 83¢ $493 2h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 79¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 79¢ $201 4h
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ SELL MIBR Academy 100¢ $206 4h
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY MIBR Academy 98¢ $99 4h
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY MIBR Academy 69¢ $30 4h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A SELL NAVI Junior 100¢ $135 4h
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY MIBR Academy 81¢ $50 4h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A BUY NAVI Junior 73¢ $100 5h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 76¢ $76 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 21¢ $21 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $54 27h
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) SELL Natus Vincere 81¢ $12 193d
Counter-Strike: Oramond vs BIG (BO3) SELL BIG 100¢ $32 193d
Counter-Strike: Oramond vs BIG (BO3) BUY BIG 90¢ $29 193d
Jazz vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 71¢ $9 194d
Hawks vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 72¢ $10 194d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $814.59 · official $815.05 (match) · 46 history records