Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaa08…d98a sports 226 markets active 9h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31,644 (+8%) realized +$31,644 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate66%149W / 77L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,758per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$3,067est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,359
7 days+$9,511
14 days+$11,266
30 days+$13,411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$28,818
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +20.5% +9.0% 77% 64% +15.4%
≤30d 53 +4.8% -5.2% 64% 55% +7.7%
≤90d 164 +3.8% -6.1% 65% 49% -3.1%
all 226 +3.0% -6.8% 66% 52% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 52% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 43% -12.1%
15% -23.9% 29% -20.6%
20% -31.3% 19% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$2,021) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$609 vs −$804 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31,644
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses149 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$3,067
Open positions0
Markets (closed)226 / 226
History coverage113d
Avg bet$1,758
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 226 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Nicolas Oliveira Jun 25 $2,726 −$2,168 -80%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Oceane Dodin vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew Jun 25 $1,517 +$892 +59%
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Kayo Nishimura Jun 25 $310 +$80 +26%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic Jun 24 $2,935 +$124 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera Jun 24 $6,239 +$5,220 +84%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng Jun 24 $3,616 +$1,000 +28%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch Jun 24 $1,989 +$185 +9%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs Jun 24 $3,006 +$226 +8%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy Jun 24 $814 −$366 -45%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $844 −$834 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $1,008 −$1,000 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $12 +$13 +114%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 22 $505 +$242 +48%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $2,639 +$1,918 +73%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko Jun 22 $1,015 +$1,009 +99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $1,014 +$886 +87%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 21 $605 +$200 +33%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $506 −$500 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $1,519 +$837 +55%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $508 +$513 +101%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 19 $2,522 +$746 +30%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $304 +$288 +94%
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Schnaitter/Wallner Jun 18 $106 +$70 +66%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $707 +$308 +44%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $2,007 +$268 +13%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov Jun 17 $2,922 +$1,109 +38%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $604 +$157 +26%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $3,510 −$2,959 -84%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $306 −$300 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $1,112 +$650 +58%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 09 $305 −$300 -98%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez Jun 09 $908 −$520 -57%
Cattolica: Michele Ribecai vs Franco Agamenone Jun 08 $509 +$682 +134%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $306 −$300 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $606 +$277 +46%
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Kayla Day Jun 04 $499 +$66 +13%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu Jun 04 $507 −$500 -99%
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov Jun 03 $910 +$569 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $2,309 +$340 +15%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 03 $913 −$79 -9%
Foggia: Tatiana Pieri vs Sofia Costoulas Jun 03 $1,134 −$245 -22%
Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Pedro Martinez Jun 03 $810 −$468 -58%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Krawietz/Puetz vs Golubev/Nedovyesov Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Alex Marti Pujolras Jun 03 $305 −$305 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik Jun 03 $609 −$609 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Foggia: Andreea Prisacariu vs Nika Radisic Jun 02 $2,028 +$1,678 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $611 +$968 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $4,752 +$4,023 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Nicolas Oliveira BUY Nicolas Oliveira 58¢ $202 8h
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Nicolas Oliveira SELL Nicolas Oliveira 60¢ $526 9h
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Nicolas Oliveira BUY Nicolas Oliveira 60¢ $506 9h
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Nicolas Oliveira BUY Nicolas Oliveira 57¢ $101 9h
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Nicolas Oliveira BUY Nicolas Oliveira 57¢ $304 9h
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Nicolas Oliveira BUY Nicolas Oliveira 81¢ $503 9h
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Nicolas Oliveira BUY Nicolas Oliveira 72¢ $504 9h
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Nicolas Oliveira BUY Nicolas Oliveira 71¢ $504 9h
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Nicolas Oliveira BUY Nicolas Oliveira 70¢ $101 9h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Oceane Dodin vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 68¢ $1,010 11h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Oceane Dodin vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 53¢ $507 11h
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Kayo Nishimura BUY Sakura Hosogi 79¢ $302 14h
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Kayo Nishimura BUY Sakura Hosogi 84¢ $8 15h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 87¢ $100 27h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 80¢ $101 27h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 79¢ $101 27h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic SELL Tiphanie Lemaitre 68¢ $303 27h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic SELL Tiphanie Lemaitre 63¢ $126 27h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 88¢ $100 27h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 91¢ $100 27h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 91¢ $46 27h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 88¢ $100 27h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 89¢ $100 27h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 97¢ $200 27h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 96¢ $170 27h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 90¢ $201 27h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 90¢ $100 27h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 91¢ $100 27h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 95¢ $100 27h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 89¢ $301 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1385 history records