Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AA 0xaa07…2125 sports 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (197 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$773,475 (+74%) realized +$774,327 · open −$852
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%41W / 43L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$10,373per market
Trades / day197.0pace
Fees−$11,383est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$101,017now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$245,301
other 21% −$35,783
world 1% −$6,050
crypto 0% −$3
weather 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (197 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -5.9% -14.9% 41% 41% -1.9%
≤30d 84 +6.3% -3.8% 49% 46% +10.1%
≤90d 84 +6.3% -3.8% 49% 46% +10.1%
all 84 +6.3% -3.8% 49% 46% +10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover197.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 46% +10.1%
10% -13.0% 44% -0.4%
15% ← realistic here -21.4% 42% -10.0%
20% -29.1% 37% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$16,066) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
26.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13,223 vs −$7,856 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$101,017
Realized+$774,327
Unrealized−$852
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses41 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$11,383
Open positions17
Markets (closed)84 / 101
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$10,373
Trades / day197.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20,676 $19,987 −$689 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $19,220 $19,290 +$70 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $17,165 $17,193 +$28 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 80¢ $9,020 $8,753 −$267 (-3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $7,958 $7,861 −$97 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,670 $5,932 +$262 (+5%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $5,412 $5,724 +$312 (+6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,564 $4,883 +$319 (+7%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,550 $4,225 −$325 (-7%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 55¢ $1,821 $1,786 −$35 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1,800 $1,725 −$75 (-4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,500 $1,250 −$250 (-17%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 82¢ $758 $834 +$76 (+10%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $720 $540 −$180 (-25%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $455 $460 +$5 (+1%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 57¢ $293 $290 −$3 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 40¢ $287 $283 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $4,421 +$1,006 +23%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $18,378 −$18,113 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $25,144 −$24,604 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $551 −$541 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10,431 −$10,250 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $13,936 −$13,750 -99%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10,270 +$89,730 +874%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,557 −$1,518 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20,889 +$53,394 +256%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $14,556 +$13,058 +90%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 21 $1,650 −$1,650 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,400 −$4,400 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $92 +$46 +50%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $9,195 −$8,994 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $12,466 +$12,097 +97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $11,560 +$6,343 +55%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $28,368 −$27,929 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4,300 −$4,300 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $1,008 −$991 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $8,454 +$5,396 +64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8,475 −$8,323 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $9,503 −$9,305 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $7,035 +$3,219 +46%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $13,500 −$13,500 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10,045 +$7,946 +79%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $830 +$715 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $7,200 −$7,200 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 +$12 +100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $9,400 −$9,400 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $3,599 −$3,510 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $1,770 −$1,743 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $827 −$821 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $32,500 −$32,500 -100%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $15,460 +$9,591 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $18,800 +$21,200 +113%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $367 +$1,128 +307%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $7,210 +$6,459 +90%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $251 +$149 +60%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $32,859 +$23,089 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,298 +$524 +40%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $18,011 +$40,073 +222%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $6,109 −$6,008 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $9,071 −$8,944 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $43 +$9 +22%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 17 $761 −$744 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $6,538 −$6,487 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4,222 −$4,170 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $177 −$174 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $464 +$354 +76%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5,724 −$5,587 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 0m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 2m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 5m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $18 5m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 8m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 17m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 28m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 30m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 31m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $151 31m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 34m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 40m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $300 41m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 43m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,918 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,051 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7,722 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $12,325 13h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 13h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $85 13h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,201 13h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 13h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $4,752 13h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $14,098 13h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 81¢ $4,421 13h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $862 14h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $551 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101,016.54 · official $101,039.36 (match) · 3500 history records