Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:11:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa06…1e0f other 386 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$874 (+12%) realized +$787 · open −$287
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate61%177W / 111L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day45.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2,215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$476
14 days+$446
30 days+$493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% +$410
world 26% −$21
other 23% −$420
sports 15% +$490
crypto 3% −$7
tech 2% +$8
economics 1% +$54
culture 1% −$5
weather 0% −$7
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +28.2% +16.0% 66% 44% +53.9%
≤30d 106 +27.0% +14.9% 66% 31% +10.5%
≤90d 288 +6.9% -3.3% 61% 29% +8.2%
all 288 +6.9% -3.3% 61% 29% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.3% 29% +8.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.5% 23% -2.2%
15% -21.0% 19% -11.6%
20% -28.7% 17% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$2,215
Realized+$787
Unrealized−$287
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses177 / 111
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions106
Markets (closed)288 / 386
History coverage68d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day45.9
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 106 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 70¢ 98¢ $199 $279 +$80 (+40%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $505 $252 −$252 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 61¢ 83¢ $85 $115 +$30 (+36%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $110 $112 +$2 (+2%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $104 $106 +$2 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $65 $75 +$11 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $83 $75 −$8 (-10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 76¢ 92¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $48 $59 +$11 (+22%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 56¢ 72¢ $42 $54 +$12 (+29%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 53¢ 92¢ $28 $49 +$21 (+75%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 83¢ 99¢ $38 $46 +$8 (+20%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+4%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 97¢ 100¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+3%)
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes $136 $45 −$91 (-67%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $59 $42 −$17 (-29%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $36 $39 +$3 (+9%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 18¢ 64¢ $10 $35 +$25 (+253%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 72¢ 74¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 39¢ 39¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 +$5 +11%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $15 −$9 -59%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $209 +$34 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 12 $30 −$3 -11%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$14 +140%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $102 +$131 +129%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Ken Calvert advance from the CA-40 primary election? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $20 −$15 -74%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $14 +$29 +199%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $21 +$62 +299%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $31 +$115 +371%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $51 +$146 +284%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $80 −$5 -6%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $9 $0 +2%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $15 +$1 +3%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 03 $5 +$1 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $247 −$2 -1%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $127 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$5 -48%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $10 −$1 -6%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will a hurricane form by May 31? Jun 02 $10 $0 +4%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 02 $49 $0 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $79 +$1 +1%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? Jun 01 $100 −$42 -42%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $12 −$3 -28%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 01 $11 −$3 -29%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 4m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $20 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $4 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 13m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $20 13m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $4 13m
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 14m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 16m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 16m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $36 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $5 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $5 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $5 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $0 29m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $5 30m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $20 30m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 30m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $5 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $5 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $5 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $12 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,215.47 · official $2,214.32 (match) · 3500 history records